Barrel Proof Baseball
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Barrel Proof Leaderboard

Luck Gap

Expected production from tracking data compared against Barrel Proof’s calculated wOBA.

Minimum 150 PA

Production Lagging Contact Quality

132
Player Team PA BP wOBA xwOBA Luck Gap Label
Lawrence Butler ATH 183 0.233 0.306 +73 Production lagging contact quality
Will Smith LAD 201 0.322 0.386 +64 Production lagging contact quality
Bo Bichette NYM 292 0.267 0.325 +58 Production lagging contact quality
Victor Caratini MIN 184 0.274 0.332 +58 Production lagging contact quality
Austin Wells NYY 169 0.246 0.301 +55 Production lagging contact quality
Brandon Nimmo TEX 283 0.324 0.377 +53 Production lagging contact quality
Corey Seager TEX 200 0.28 0.333 +53 Production lagging contact quality
J.T. Realmuto PHI 169 0.263 0.315 +52 Production lagging contact quality
Luis Rengifo MIL 205 0.245 0.296 +51 Production lagging contact quality
Marcus Semien NYM 264 0.275 0.325 +50 Production lagging contact quality
Edouard Julien COL 181 0.293 0.341 +48 Production lagging contact quality
Ketel Marte ARI 277 0.322 0.368 +46 Production lagging contact quality
Mike Trout LAA 307 0.369 0.415 +46 Production lagging contact quality
Marcell Ozuna PIT 206 0.263 0.308 +45 Production lagging contact quality
Jackson Merrill SD 267 0.272 0.316 +44 Production lagging contact quality
Mark Vientos NYM 204 0.268 0.312 +44 Production lagging contact quality
Yordan Alvarez HOU 300 0.447 0.489 +42 Production lagging contact quality
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD 286 0.311 0.352 +41 Production lagging contact quality
Joey Ortiz MIL 160 0.258 0.298 +40 Production lagging contact quality
Matt Vierling DET 190 0.271 0.31 +39 Expected production ahead of actual production
Cal Raleigh SEA 181 0.252 0.289 +37 Expected production ahead of actual production
Cam Smith HOU 260 0.302 0.338 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Dillon Dingler DET 253 0.367 0.403 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Ezequiel Tovar COL 247 0.266 0.302 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Gabriel Moreno ARI 165 0.342 0.378 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Jo Adell LAA 286 0.295 0.331 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Manny Machado SD 270 0.264 0.3 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Tyler Stephenson CIN 191 0.295 0.331 +36 Expected production ahead of actual production
Carson Benge NYM 251 0.318 0.353 +35 Expected production ahead of actual production
Bobby Witt Jr. KC 303 0.35 0.384 +34 Expected production ahead of actual production
Salvador Perez KC 265 0.254 0.288 +34 Expected production ahead of actual production
Pete Alonso BAL 299 0.335 0.368 +33 Expected production ahead of actual production
Cole Young SEA 276 0.297 0.328 +31 Expected production ahead of actual production
Nico Hoerner CHC 304 0.305 0.336 +31 Expected production ahead of actual production
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 283 0.328 0.359 +31 Expected production ahead of actual production
Bryce Harper PHI 282 0.385 0.414 +29 Expected production ahead of actual production
Jeff McNeil ATH 228 0.275 0.304 +29 Expected production ahead of actual production
Juan Soto NYM 214 0.377 0.406 +29 Expected production ahead of actual production
Kyle Karros COL 220 0.304 0.333 +29 Expected production ahead of actual production
Blaze Alexander BAL 162 0.328 0.356 +28 Expected production ahead of actual production
Aaron Judge NYY 261 0.388 0.415 +27 Expected production ahead of actual production
James Wood WSH 322 0.404 0.431 +27 Expected production ahead of actual production
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL 236 0.352 0.379 +27 Expected production ahead of actual production
Sam Antonacci CWS 196 0.347 0.374 +27 Expected production ahead of actual production
Steven Kwan CLE 264 0.274 0.3 +26 Expected production ahead of actual production
Vaughn Grissom LAA 155 0.324 0.35 +26 Expected production ahead of actual production
Vinnie Pasquantino KC 280 0.292 0.318 +26 Expected production ahead of actual production
Adolis García PHI 259 0.269 0.294 +25 Expected production ahead of actual production
Andrew Benintendi CWS 213 0.302 0.327 +25 Expected production ahead of actual production
José Ramírez CLE 307 0.333 0.358 +25 Expected production ahead of actual production
Trent Grisham NYY 260 0.334 0.359 +25 Expected production ahead of actual production
Victor Scott II STL 184 0.248 0.273 +25 Expected production ahead of actual production
Xander Bogaerts SD 251 0.295 0.32 +25 Expected production ahead of actual production
Nasim Nuñez WSH 222 0.243 0.267 +24 Expected production ahead of actual production
Alec Burleson STL 280 0.363 0.385 +22 Expected production ahead of actual production
Colt Keith DET 196 0.279 0.301 +22 Expected production ahead of actual production
Spencer Steer CIN 260 0.341 0.363 +22 Expected production ahead of actual production
Edgar Quero CWS 152 0.231 0.252 +21 Expected production ahead of actual production
Brent Rooker ATH 203 0.295 0.315 +20 Expected production ahead of actual production
Caleb Durbin BOS 210 0.265 0.285 +20 Expected production ahead of actual production
Bryson Stott PHI 233 0.296 0.315 +19 Expected production ahead of actual production
Geraldo Perdomo ARI 267 0.315 0.334 +19 Expected production ahead of actual production
Josh Naylor SEA 279 0.308 0.327 +19 Expected production ahead of actual production
Ramón Laureano SD 206 0.293 0.312 +19 Expected production ahead of actual production
Matt McLain CIN 253 0.305 0.323 +18 Expected production ahead of actual production
Miguel Vargas CWS 291 0.376 0.394 +18 Expected production ahead of actual production
JJ Wetherholt STL 281 0.337 0.354 +17 Expected production ahead of actual production
Josh Bell MIN 264 0.287 0.303 +16 Expected production ahead of actual production
Maikel Garcia KC 266 0.311 0.327 +16 Expected production ahead of actual production
Adley Rutschman BAL 204 0.361 0.376 +15 Expected production ahead of actual production
Austin Riley ATL 277 0.286 0.301 +15 Expected production ahead of actual production
Chase DeLauter CLE 265 0.322 0.337 +15 Expected production ahead of actual production
Evan Carter TEX 223 0.284 0.299 +15 Expected production ahead of actual production
Masyn Winn STL 248 0.286 0.301 +15 Expected production ahead of actual production
Wenceel Pérez DET 168 0.258 0.273 +15 Expected production ahead of actual production
Brett Baty NYM 225 0.283 0.297 +14 Actual and expected production aligned
Dansby Swanson CHC 247 0.276 0.29 +14 Actual and expected production aligned
Drake Baldwin ATL 216 0.404 0.418 +14 Actual and expected production aligned
J.P. Crawford SEA 233 0.344 0.358 +14 Actual and expected production aligned
Colton Cowser BAL 158 0.308 0.321 +13 Actual and expected production aligned
Michael Harris II ATL 245 0.37 0.383 +13 Actual and expected production aligned
Wilyer Abreu BOS 280 0.329 0.342 +13 Actual and expected production aligned
Coby Mayo BAL 187 0.287 0.299 +12 Actual and expected production aligned
George Springer TOR 206 0.286 0.298 +12 Actual and expected production aligned
Julio Rodríguez SEA 304 0.328 0.34 +12 Actual and expected production aligned
Kyle Stowers MIA 188 0.298 0.31 +12 Actual and expected production aligned
Nathaniel Lowe CIN 166 0.364 0.376 +12 Actual and expected production aligned
Daniel Schneemann CLE 194 0.29 0.301 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Dominic Smith ATL 162 0.34 0.351 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Jacob Young WSH 228 0.301 0.312 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Jakob Marsee MIA 274 0.297 0.308 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Jonathan Aranda TB 279 0.361 0.372 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Luke Raley SEA 195 0.356 0.367 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Max Muncy LAD 233 0.382 0.393 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Nolan Gorman STL 226 0.27 0.281 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 286 0.342 0.353 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Sal Stewart CIN 293 0.353 0.364 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Samuel Basallo BAL 199 0.346 0.357 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Shohei Ohtani LAD 294 0.402 0.413 +11 Actual and expected production aligned
Jac Caglianone KC 227 0.354 0.364 +10 Actual and expected production aligned
Kevin McGonigle DET 287 0.363 0.373 +10 Actual and expected production aligned
Luis García Jr. WSH 217 0.327 0.337 +10 Actual and expected production aligned
Nick Gonzales PIT 250 0.325 0.335 +10 Actual and expected production aligned
Trea Turner PHI 296 0.276 0.286 +10 Actual and expected production aligned
Alec Bohm PHI 258 0.287 0.296 +9 Actual and expected production aligned
Alex Bregman CHC 305 0.303 0.312 +9 Actual and expected production aligned
Heliot Ramos SF 176 0.317 0.326 +9 Actual and expected production aligned
William Contreras MIL 274 0.326 0.335 +9 Actual and expected production aligned
Dominic Canzone SEA 166 0.372 0.38 +8 Actual and expected production aligned
Jarren Duran BOS 271 0.287 0.295 +8 Actual and expected production aligned
Cody Bellinger NYY 285 0.367 0.374 +7 Actual and expected production aligned
Joc Pederson TEX 204 0.344 0.351 +7 Actual and expected production aligned
Logan O'Hoppe LAA 155 0.276 0.283 +7 Actual and expected production aligned
Curtis Mead WSH 192 0.366 0.372 +6 Actual and expected production aligned
Freddie Freeman LAD 284 0.369 0.375 +6 Actual and expected production aligned
Jesús Sánchez TOR 204 0.346 0.352 +6 Actual and expected production aligned
Kyle Tucker LAD 275 0.321 0.327 +6 Actual and expected production aligned
Daylen Lile WSH 300 0.326 0.331 +5 Actual and expected production aligned
Iván Herrera STL 296 0.358 0.363 +5 Actual and expected production aligned
Nolan Schanuel LAA 218 0.306 0.311 +5 Actual and expected production aligned
Ryan McMahon NYY 180 0.285 0.29 +5 Actual and expected production aligned
Sal Frelick MIL 236 0.274 0.279 +5 Actual and expected production aligned
Trevor Story BOS 176 0.243 0.248 +5 Actual and expected production aligned
Isaac Collins KC 222 0.299 0.302 +3 Actual and expected production aligned
Jeremiah Jackson BAL 180 0.292 0.295 +3 Actual and expected production aligned
Taylor Ward BAL 313 0.352 0.355 +3 Actual and expected production aligned
Tyler Freeman COL 165 0.329 0.332 +3 Actual and expected production aligned
Bryan Reynolds PIT 293 0.365 0.367 +2 Actual and expected production aligned
Michael Busch CHC 295 0.344 0.346 +2 Actual and expected production aligned
Moisés Ballesteros CHC 161 0.313 0.315 +2 Actual and expected production aligned
Spencer Torkelson DET 259 0.315 0.317 +2 Actual and expected production aligned
Kazuma Okamoto TOR 275 0.323 0.324 +1 Actual and expected production aligned

Actual Production Running Ahead

109
Player Team PA BP wOBA xwOBA Luck Gap Label
Mickey Moniak COL 164 0.401 0.324 -77 Regression warning
Ernie Clement TOR 274 0.342 0.276 -66 Regression warning
Tristan Peters CWS 187 0.348 0.293 -55 Regression warning
Christian Yelich MIL 163 0.346 0.294 -52 Regression warning
Zack Gelof ATH 187 0.339 0.287 -52 Regression warning
Christian Vázquez HOU 150 0.289 0.241 -48 Regression warning
Javier Sanoja MIA 154 0.307 0.262 -45 Regression warning
Spencer Horwitz PIT 240 0.377 0.334 -43 Regression warning
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS 245 0.34 0.298 -42 Regression warning
Luis Arraez SF 292 0.345 0.303 -42 Regression warning
Brooks Lee MIN 257 0.316 0.275 -41 Regression warning
Byron Buxton MIN 258 0.38 0.339 -41 Regression warning
Jackson Chourio MIL 151 0.378 0.339 -39 Actual production running ahead
Matt Chapman SF 287 0.334 0.296 -38 Actual production running ahead
Michael Massey KC 150 0.318 0.28 -38 Actual production running ahead
Hunter Goodman COL 261 0.367 0.33 -37 Actual production running ahead
Brandon Marsh PHI 241 0.374 0.338 -36 Actual production running ahead
Jacob Wilson ATH 168 0.311 0.275 -36 Actual production running ahead
Chase Meidroth CWS 279 0.326 0.291 -35 Actual production running ahead
Ben Rice NYY 265 0.425 0.391 -34 Actual production running ahead
Ezequiel Duran TEX 212 0.349 0.315 -34 Actual production running ahead
Christian Walker HOU 285 0.351 0.318 -33 Actual production running ahead
Liam Hicks MIA 250 0.355 0.322 -33 Actual production running ahead
Otto Lopez MIA 284 0.373 0.341 -32 Actual production running ahead
Yandy Díaz TB 272 0.406 0.374 -32 Actual production running ahead
Taylor Walls TB 174 0.276 0.245 -31 Actual production running ahead
Ozzie Albies ATL 293 0.339 0.309 -30 Actual production running ahead
Corbin Carroll ARI 273 0.397 0.368 -29 Actual production running ahead
Willi Castro COL 214 0.317 0.288 -29 Actual production running ahead
CJ Abrams WSH 288 0.39 0.362 -28 Actual production running ahead
Chandler Simpson TB 254 0.28 0.253 -27 Actual production running ahead
José Caballero NYY 198 0.312 0.285 -27 Actual production running ahead
Jordan Walker STL 275 0.399 0.373 -26 Actual production running ahead
Travis Bazzana CLE 166 0.338 0.312 -26 Actual production running ahead
Jake McCarthy COL 193 0.336 0.311 -25 Actual production running ahead
Jung Hoo Lee SF 250 0.363 0.338 -25 Actual production running ahead
Ryan O'Hearn PIT 215 0.36 0.336 -24 Actual production running ahead
Xavier Edwards MIA 288 0.369 0.345 -24 Actual production running ahead
Troy Johnston COL 237 0.348 0.325 -23 Actual production running ahead
Zach Neto LAA 302 0.344 0.321 -23 Actual production running ahead
Carter Jensen KC 228 0.292 0.27 -22 Actual production running ahead
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 262 0.316 0.294 -22 Actual production running ahead
Colson Montgomery CWS 270 0.347 0.326 -21 Actual production running ahead
Ian Happ CHC 282 0.363 0.342 -21 Actual production running ahead
Daulton Varsho TOR 236 0.324 0.304 -20 Actual production running ahead
Kyle Schwarber PHI 293 0.399 0.379 -20 Actual production running ahead
Munetaka Murakami CWS 246 0.4 0.38 -20 Actual production running ahead
Nolan Arenado ARI 235 0.34 0.32 -20 Actual production running ahead
Trevor Larnach MIN 193 0.338 0.318 -20 Actual production running ahead
David Hamilton MIL 188 0.3 0.281 -19 Actual production running ahead
Konnor Griffin PIT 208 0.322 0.303 -19 Actual production running ahead
Miguel Andujar SD 198 0.304 0.285 -19 Actual production running ahead
Nick Kurtz ATH 306 0.416 0.397 -19 Actual production running ahead
Brayan Rocchio CLE 251 0.337 0.32 -17 Actual production running ahead
Jake Bauers MIL 234 0.385 0.368 -17 Actual production running ahead
Gleyber Torres DET 176 0.351 0.336 -15 Actual production running ahead
Josh Jung TEX 263 0.372 0.357 -15 Actual production running ahead
Kyle Isbel KC 183 0.29 0.275 -15 Actual production running ahead
Rafael Devers SF 295 0.307 0.292 -15 Actual production running ahead
TJ Rumfield COL 258 0.344 0.329 -15 Actual production running ahead
Andrés Giménez TOR 235 0.273 0.26 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Andy Pages LAD 281 0.365 0.352 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Kody Clemens MIN 213 0.349 0.336 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Leody Taveras BAL 205 0.326 0.313 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Oswald Peraza LAA 211 0.332 0.319 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Randy Arozarena SEA 295 0.368 0.355 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Rhys Hoskins CLE 189 0.322 0.309 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Willy Adames SF 288 0.31 0.297 -13 Actual and expected production aligned
Justin Crawford PHI 206 0.279 0.267 -12 Actual and expected production aligned
Carlos Cortes ATH 182 0.39 0.379 -11 Actual and expected production aligned
Jake Burger TEX 263 0.32 0.309 -11 Actual and expected production aligned
Mike Yastrzemski ATL 193 0.304 0.293 -11 Actual and expected production aligned
Ildemaro Vargas ARI 231 0.32 0.31 -10 Actual and expected production aligned
Nick Fortes TB 168 0.296 0.286 -10 Actual and expected production aligned
Paul Goldschmidt NYY 161 0.388 0.378 -10 Actual and expected production aligned
Carson Kelly CHC 178 0.326 0.317 -9 Actual and expected production aligned
Elly De La Cruz CIN 257 0.371 0.362 -9 Actual and expected production aligned
Junior Caminero TB 286 0.379 0.37 -9 Actual and expected production aligned
Marcelo Mayer BOS 189 0.269 0.26 -9 Actual and expected production aligned
Riley Greene DET 285 0.374 0.365 -9 Actual and expected production aligned
Tyler Soderstrom ATH 275 0.346 0.337 -9 Actual and expected production aligned
Angel Martínez CLE 238 0.314 0.306 -8 Actual and expected production aligned
Cedric Mullins TB 227 0.268 0.26 -8 Actual and expected production aligned
Connor Norby MIA 209 0.304 0.296 -8 Actual and expected production aligned
Garrett Mitchell MIL 206 0.337 0.329 -8 Actual and expected production aligned
Isaac Paredes HOU 265 0.329 0.321 -8 Actual and expected production aligned
Mauricio Dubón ATL 255 0.322 0.314 -8 Actual and expected production aligned
Brandon Lowe PIT 270 0.366 0.359 -7 Actual and expected production aligned
JJ Bleday CIN 171 0.397 0.39 -7 Actual and expected production aligned
Matt Olson ATL 299 0.385 0.378 -7 Actual and expected production aligned
Austin Martin MIN 223 0.318 0.312 -6 Actual and expected production aligned
Casey Schmitt SF 261 0.354 0.348 -6 Actual and expected production aligned
Gavin Sheets SD 217 0.333 0.327 -6 Actual and expected production aligned
Richie Palacios TB 159 0.306 0.3 -6 Actual and expected production aligned
Alex Freeland LAD 150 0.31 0.305 -5 Actual and expected production aligned
Brice Turang MIL 287 0.372 0.367 -5 Actual and expected production aligned
Eugenio Suárez CIN 163 0.284 0.279 -5 Actual and expected production aligned
Teoscar Hernández LAD 204 0.344 0.339 -5 Actual and expected production aligned
Jorge Soler LAA 243 0.31 0.306 -4 Actual and expected production aligned
Luke Keaschall MIN 257 0.288 0.284 -4 Actual and expected production aligned
Jose Altuve HOU 205 0.304 0.301 -3 Actual and expected production aligned
Shea Langeliers ATH 284 0.38 0.377 -3 Actual and expected production aligned
Kyle Manzardo CLE 209 0.323 0.321 -2 Actual and expected production aligned
Lane Thomas KC 152 0.314 0.312 -2 Actual and expected production aligned
Owen Caissie MIA 182 0.291 0.289 -2 Actual and expected production aligned
Ben Williamson TB 159 0.299 0.298 -1 Actual and expected production aligned
Gunnar Henderson BAL 313 0.305 0.304 -1 Actual and expected production aligned
Oneil Cruz PIT 283 0.359 0.358 -1 Actual and expected production aligned
Willson Contreras BOS 265 0.389 0.388 -1 Actual and expected production aligned